The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed combined with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger probability of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less possibility of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case of a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. follow this link tries to remove the result of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as you possibly can.
Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the initial half with the overall game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance of the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book begun to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only had a need to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. If they do let you do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.
There are, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One type of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can give you an edge in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge one another and increase your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an impression privately or the full total. Parlaying is another method to boost your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win when you have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia will cover the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will go over 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the more likely the game will go over. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, in that case your possibility of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia will cover the 25 points. As a result, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
For those who have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the total in the same game, because an increasing number of are realizing these bets are sometimes co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.